Building Permit History

Building permit history for various types of new construction provides another important indicator of development trends in an area. The greatest demand over the past five years has been in residential development. Only four permits were issued for new non-residential buildings.

Future Population Growth and the Demand for Housing

Predicting the future population growth rate for the City of Soledad involves a certain degree of speculation. Factors that will affect future population growth and housing demand in Soledad include:

• Housing costs, both within the City and in surrounding communities
• The supply of housing and the variety of product types
• The occurrence of overcrowding
• Employment opportunities and the income level supported by local and regional jobs
• Regulatory factors such as growth control measures in other jurisdictions and the regional Fair-share housing allocations by the State
• Infrastructure and environmental constraints

Household size is another important factor in determining the demand for housing. A larger household size requires fewer dwellings to house (in the absence of overcrowding); conversely, smaller household size requires more dwellings to house the same population. According to the 1990 Census, the average household size in Soledad was 4.65 persons. The 1993 General Plan assumes that average household size will decline as more new housing is constructed and occupied by smaller households with higher incomes. However, a January, 1999 estimate by the Department of Finance suggests that average household size in Soledad has actually increased to about 4.8 even though hundreds of new dwelling units have been built since 1993. Based on anecdotal evidence, City planning staff has concluded that a substantial number of new dwellings are being bought and occupied by more than one family, or by more than one generation of a single family with the result that household size remains the highest among cities in Monterey County. Increasing the amount of affordable for-sale and rental housing in Soledad may help address this problem.

Another factor that could indirectly affect population growth in Soledad is expansion of the prisons, which were annexed to the City in 1992. The Salinas Valley Prison was expanded in 1 997 bringing the total inmate population (both facilities) to 11,200, and a total full-time workforce of over 2,700. According to representatives of the Department of Corrections, there are no plans in the immediate future to expand either prison facility. However, some years ago the State was considering expanding the facilities again which would require 1,200 additional employees (around 5,000 additional inmates). The plans were shelved, but it is the policy of the State to expand existing prison facilities as a first priority over building new facilities, so the potential remains. More recently, the Department of Corrections considered and then rejected a plan to establish a psychiatric facility at Soledad which would have housed an additional 400 inmates. While changes to the number of inmates does not directly affect housing demand in Soledad, prison employment does. When the inmate population increases, new employees are hired who are likely to re-locate to the area, since Soledad is the nearest housing market to the prison. Although wages are generally higher at the prisons than for other jobs in the area, entry-level employees are typically renters looking for affordable rental housing. Older employees with families are more likely to purchase single-family residences.